June US logistics manager’s index 55.3, slightly down from May’s 55.6

While the overall index has not changed significantly this month, there has been considerable movement in some of the individual metrics. Any reading above 50 indicates that logistics is expanding; a reading below 50 is indicative of a shrinking logistics industry.

The US logistics manager’s index (LMI) was 55.3 in June—a bit down from May’s 55.6.
The index has expanded for seven months in a row and in 10 of the last 11 months.
Inventory levels contracted for the second month in a row at a rate of 47.4.
Freight recession is not technically over yet, but this is the beginning of what a recovery might look like, LMI said.

The LMI score is a combination of eight unique components that make up the logistics industry: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilisation and prices; and transportation capacity, utilisation and prices.

Researchers from leading US logistics and supply chain schools are conducting a long-term survey with the goal of identifying trends and developments in the logistics industry over time.

Inventory levels (plus 0.8) contracted for the second month in a row at a rate of 47.4. With inventories down, the United States also witnessed associated dips in the expansion rate of inventory costs (down 1.6 points to 63.6) and a very notable drop in warehousing utilisation (down 11.4 points to 52.6).

This slowdown is counteracted by a tightening of both warehousing capacity (minus 3) at 52.6 and transportation capacity (minus 7.3) which read in at 50—the first time this metric has moved out of expansion since March 2022, the last month before the freight downturn began in earnest.

A related increase (plus 3.2) in transportation prices was also observed. At 61, these are at their highest level since September 2022. At an 11-point difference, transportation prices have not exceeded transportation capacity by this much since April 2022.

This marks the second consecutive month that prices have exceeded capacity, and transportation capacity has moved out of expansion and to ‘no change’ at 50.

If this trend continues—as one might expect with peak season coming—then we would be comfortable calling the end of the freight recession that has gripped the industry since the Spring 2022.

The freight recession is not technically over yet, but this is the beginning of what a recovery might look like, LMI said in a release.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)